Where Did the Water Go?

November 30, 2021

 Lake Powell in Page, AZ.

We were here 3 years ago. From the campground we could walk to the water. Back then it was a bit of a hike, not the short walk to the water's edge that it was when Lake Powell was full, some 20 years ago. But now, when you get to where the water was 3 years ago, you still have a quarter mile to go before you reach the water.

Here's Jane standing by the "No Lifeguard" sign that used to be just before you arrived at the water.  Look over her left shoulder. Those black dots you see are cars parked in a new parking lot by the new boat launch. That new parking lot is still high above the lake level.

The water in Lake Powell is low. The lake is at around 29% of capacity, and the lake levels will continue to fall until sometime in April or May. The typical cycle is that the lake reaches its low point some time from mid-April to early May. Then the spring melt and runoff from the mountain snows begins and raises the lake level. In some years, the lake will rise over 40 feet in elevation from the spring runoff. In 2021, the lake rose only 2 feet.

The western US is facing a water crisis. Twenty years of drought and an over-allocation of the existing water have brought us to the point where water usage will have to be cut back. Nowhere is this more visible than at Lake Powell and Lake Mead. Both reservoirs are at the lowest point that they have been since they first reached full pool. It's rather shocking to come back after only 3 years and find that the water is down almost 50 feet from where you last saw it.


This is the Antelope Point boat launch ramp. Jane is standing at the bottom of it. You know, the part that is underwater so that your boat will float off the trailer. This ramp, like all the other original ramps at Lake Powell, is unusable. There is a new boat ramp where the swimming area used to be that enables launching, at least for now.  There is construction equipment permanently on site to keep extending the boat ramp as the water levels drop. As the ramp attendant remarked, "We just keep chasing the water." 


That strategy will work only for some time. The lake is currently 158 feet down from full and has the potential to drop another 30 feet or more before the spring runoff. Here's the view from the Antelope Point marina, a floating marina that is now so far below the pedestrian ramp leading to it that the ramp is no longer usable. They have had to cut a new path through the rock to access the marina. What will happen when the lake drops some more?  I don't see a viable solution.

And this year doesn't offer much hope for a large snowpack. This is a "La Nina" year, which is the weather pattern in the Pacific that brings higher temperatures and drier than normal conditions to the southwest. The snowpack in the Colorado River watershed is currently at 66% of normal. Even if there were above-average snowpack, it would take years and years of above-average snow to refill the lake. Glen Canyon dam was completed in 1966, but it took 14 years before Lake Powell was full in 1980. Demand for water is now greater than it was then.

In 2022, we will start to see the water usage cutbacks in the allocation of Colorado River water. Arizona farmers are anticipating a 30% cut in the water available to them. No one knows exactly what the impact will be, but you can be sure that no one will be happy with it. If the present trend does not change, then at some point the city of Las Vegas will no longer be able to get water from the Colorado River. That will be an interesting situation to watch ... from a distance.


Scientists have predicted a water shortage for the southwest for a long time. Those predictions are now coming to fruition and if you come to Arizona, you can see it for yourself. This last picture shows the stateline boat ramp. It ends long before and high above the water, but a road off to the right from the end of it leads to the new ramp, where we are "chasing the water." Islands are appearing, and lots of buoys mark rocks for boaters to avoid--rocks that used to be a hundred feet underwater.

Stay tuned and we'll see what the future will bring.

For access to the Lake Powell water database, where you can see the current levels, click here:  Lake Powell Water Database (water-data.com)


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